Vistra Raises 2026 EBITDA Range After Record Summer

The Tip Desk · November 6, 2026 · 3 min read

Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA reached $2,378 million in the third quarter, and the company lifted 2026 guidance to $7.1 billion to $7.5 billion.

Vistra Corp. (VST) reported Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA of $2,378 million for the three months ended September 30, 2026, up more than 50% from $1,581 million a year earlier, after a more than 30% year-over-year increase to $1,767 million in the second quarter.

The integrated retail electricity and power generation company said the year-over-year increase was driven primarily by higher realized energy and capacity prices, three months’ contribution from plants acquired from Lotus, and the return of Martin Lake Unit 1 to operational status. Operating revenues were $6,347 million, compared with $4,971 million a year earlier.

GAAP net income was $1,140 million, including an unrealized gain from hedges expected to settle in future years of $559 million. The company said net income increased $488 million from a year earlier, driven primarily by higher EBITDA and an increase in unrealized mark-to-market gains of $375 million on derivative positions, partly offset by higher depreciation and amortization from the Lotus plants, a partial impairment of the Moss Landing 350 facility, and higher taxes. Operating income was $1,706 million, including $269 million of impairment of long-lived assets, versus $1,037 million a year earlier.

Texas Adjusted EBITDA was $1,227 million, up from $784 million a year earlier. East Adjusted EBITDA was $979 million, up from $719 million. Retail Adjusted EBITDA was $98 million. West Adjusted EBITDA was $76 million. Corporate and Other was a $2 million loss, and Asset Closure was an $18 million loss.

President and CEO Jim Burke said the summer brought record weather, including new all-time peak demand records in July in both ERCOT and PJM, and that the fleet achieved commercial availability of nearly 95%.

Vistra raised the midpoint and narrowed 2026 Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA guidance to $7.1 billion to $7.5 billion, from the $6.8 billion to $7.6 billion range reaffirmed after the first and second quarters. It also narrowed 2026 Ongoing Operations Adjusted FCFbG to $4.3 billion to $4.7 billion, from $3.925 billion to $4.725 billion. The company initiated 2027 Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA guidance of $7.7 billion to $8.5 billion and 2027 Ongoing Operations Adjusted FCFbG of $4.3 billion to $5.1 billion.

In October 2026, Vistra closed the acquisition of Cogentrix Energy, adding approximately 5,500 MW of natural gas-fueled generation, after receiving FERC approval of the pending deal in the second-quarter release. The company said it paid approximately $2.2 billion in cash for Cogentrix, redeemed all $1 billion of Series A Preferred Stock, borrowed the full capacity under its accounts receivable financing facilities, and repaid approximately $1.7 billion of debt assumed in the acquisition, reducing available liquidity to approximately $5.4 billion on a pro forma basis. Total available liquidity was approximately $8,923 million as of September 30, 2026, including cash and cash equivalents of $2,743 million.

Vistra commenced operations of the 405 MW Pulaski Solar Facility in Illinois under a power purchase agreement with Microsoft and the 100 MW Deer Creek Solar & Energy Storage Facility in California. It announced a 20-year 207 MW power purchase agreement with New Era Energy and Digital at its Odessa combined cycle gas plant in Texas.

As of October 30, 2026, Vistra had hedged approximately 100% of expected generation volumes for 2026, 98% for 2027, and 78% for 2028. The board authorized an additional $1.5 billion of share repurchases, leaving about $2.5 billion of authorization available, which the company said it expects to complete no later than year-end 2028.