Molson Coors Cuts 2026 Profit Outlook After Volume Drop

The Tip Desk · November 5, 2026 · 3 min read

Third-quarter 2026 underlying diluted earnings were $1.46 a share on net sales of $2.93 billion; the brewer now expects full-year underlying income before income taxes to decline 21%–24% in constant currency.

Molson Coors Beverage Company (TAP) reported underlying diluted earnings of $1.46 a share for the third quarter, a 12.6% decline from a year earlier, as it cut its 2026 profit outlook after another drop in beer volumes and a step-up in Midwest Premium costs.

The brewer now expects underlying income before income taxes to decline 21% to 24% versus 2025 on a constant-currency basis, compared with a prior range of 15% to 18%. Underlying earnings per share are now seen down 16% to 19%, from a prior 11% to 15% decline. Constant-currency net sales are expected to fall 1% to 2%, versus a prior range of flat plus or minus 1%. Underlying free cash flow guidance was reduced to $1.0 billion, plus or minus 10%, from $1.1 billion, plus or minus 10%.

Net sales were $2.93 billion, down 1.6% reported and 1.2% in constant currency, a sequential improvement from the 3.3% reported and 3.6% constant-currency decline in the second quarter. Financial volume fell 3.0% and brand volume 4.9%. Price and sales mix added 1.8% to net sales, versus 3.0% in the first quarter. Net sales per hectoliter rose 1.4% reported and 1.8% in constant currency.

Underlying income before income taxes was $349.0 million, down 17.4% in constant currency, after a 27.8% constant-currency drop in the second quarter. U.S. GAAP income before income taxes was $342.2 million, compared with a loss of $3.50 billion a year earlier, primarily because the 2025 quarter included a $3.65 billion partial goodwill impairment in the Americas reporting unit and $273.9 million of intangible-asset impairments. U.S. GAAP net income attributable to MCBC was $271.5 million, or $1.45 a share.

Cost of goods sold rose 5.3% on a reported basis. COGS per hectoliter increased 8.6% reported, including about $30 million of an unfavorable impact from Midwest Premium pricing, $14.7 million of unfavorable mark-to-market commodity derivatives, volume deleverage and unfavorable mix from premiumization, partly offset by cost savings. Underlying COGS per hectoliter increased 8.1% in constant currency. Marketing, general and administrative expense decreased 7.7% reported, on lower marketing, restructuring-related employee costs and cost savings, partly offset by ERP implementation costs. Underlying MG&A decreased 7.4% in constant currency.

In the Americas, net sales were $2.23 billion, down 1.2% reported and 1.0% in constant currency. Brand volume fell 5.3%, including a 5.6% U.S. brand-volume decline on lower financial volume in core and value brands and industry softness in Canada. Price and sales mix added 1.9%. Underlying income before income taxes declined 18.8% in constant currency to $313.7 million.

EMEA&APAC net sales were $701.4 million, down 2.7% reported and 2.0% in constant currency, with financial volume down 3.0% and brand volume down 3.8%, primarily on U.K. soft demand and a heightened competitive landscape. Underlying income before income taxes rose 5.5% in constant currency to $91.8 million, on lower MG&A, partly offset by cost inflation and lower volume.

President and Chief Executive Officer Rahul Goyal said Horizon 2030 actions had not yet scaled enough to offset third-quarter headwinds. Chief Financial Officer Tracey Joubert said those pressures are likely to remain a factor in the near term.

The company said the COGS impact of Midwest Premium is expected to exceed the prior-year impact by about $130 million for the full year and that softer global beer industry volume trends observed in the second and third quarters of 2026 will persist in the fourth quarter. Capital expenditures are guided at $650 million, plus or minus 5%. Total debt was $5.996 billion at September 30, 2026, with cash of $602.2 million and net debt of $5.394 billion, a net debt to underlying EBITDA ratio of 2.53x.