Food, Beverage & Tobacco Demand Stays Positive as Outlook Lifts
Demand comments stayed positive and outlook turned constructive even as avocado prices and tequila volumes weighed.
Demand commentary in Food, Beverage & Tobacco stayed positive this quarter, with 74 positive statements against 19 negative ones, and outlook followed the same tilt: 73 positive comments versus 5 negative. Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM) raised its full-year 2026 adjusted EPS outlook, citing strong execution, a constructive biofuels environment, and momentum in Nutrition. Alico (ALCO) raised fiscal 2026 guidance for adjusted EBITDA, cash, and net debt, projecting adjusted EBITDA of approximately $15 million, and said a new office lease should begin delivering additional savings in the second quarter of next fiscal year.
Volume and mix still carried several growers and brands. Mission Produce (AVO) reported avocado volume growth of 38%, supported by Calavo integration and increased Mexican supply, and said the legacy Mission business gained meaningful year-to-date U.S. retail market share growth. Brown Forman (BF-A) said innovation remains an important growth driver as new products helped offset weakness elsewhere. CEA Industries (BNC) was a clear exception: retail and industry revenue fell 4.6%, driven primarily by the discontinuance of a product line at Fat Panda.
Pricing power split. Mission Produce reported a decrease in per-unit avocado sales prices of 9% and attributed lower International Farming profit to lower average sales prices from higher global supply of avocados. Brown Forman said tequila performance was pressured by lower volumes in the United States and lower net pricing in Mexico. B&G Foods (BGS) pointed to an increase in overall net pricing for the Meals segment, which partly offset incremental costs.
Input costs were the most contested theme, with 36 negative statements against 31 positive. B&G Foods said Meals faced an increase in certain raw material costs and manufacturing expenses, along with higher trade spending and direct marketing. Brown Forman said gross margin expanded 40 basis points driven by lower costs, although foreign exchange and unfavorable price/mix partly offset the benefit. Mission Produce raised its estimated annualized synergy opportunity to more than $30 million, citing SG&A savings and network efficiencies. Alico said it is executing a number of initiatives to reduce overhead.
Capex stayed constructive, with 37 positive statements. Cal-Maine Foods (CALM) announced a $54 million investment to expand Prepared Foods production capacity by approximately 30% beginning in the first half of fiscal 2028. Conagra Brands (CAG) said it is increasing investment behind brands and supply chain while simplifying operations. Bellring Brands (BRBR) said it would continue investing behind its brands to support long-term growth. Alico said liquidity gives it flexibility to advance its development pipeline on its own timeline.
Hiring comments were few and mostly positive. Celsius Holdings (CELH) said it is adding hundreds of retail merchandisers and sales representatives and moving more volume closer to the retailer. Vita Coco Company (COCO) said people-related costs rose with headcount growth, incentive compensation, and stock-based compensation. Coca-Cola Consolidated (COKE) said it made incremental investments in front-line teammates last year and expects related operating-expense growth to moderate.
Consumer behavior was mixed. Vita Coco said consumers are using coconut water across an array of diverse usage and drinking occasions, supporting higher average consumption per household. Brown Forman said New Mix was fueled by strong consumer demand in Mexico. Celsius said CELSIUS brand revenue decreased by approximately 11.7% in the second quarter of 2026 compared with the same period last year, reflecting increased trade and promotional investment, shipment timing related to inventory rebalancing, softness in the club channel, and SKU optimization.
Inventories were a smaller thread. Vita Coco said inventory levels decreased to $83 million on strong year-to-date shipments. Bellring Brands said results included a full-year pre-tax $28 million unfavorable impact of inventory-related actions and expects additional unfavorable inventory-related impacts for the full year. Boston Beer (SAM) said distributor inventories as of June 27, 2026 were at appropriate levels.
The group’s through-line is that demand and outlook stayed constructive even where unit prices, tequila volumes, and Celsius club-channel sales cooled, with growers and brands still spending on capacity, brands, and execution.