GE Vernova Raises 2026 Free Cash Flow Outlook

The Tip Desk · October 30, 2026 · 4 min read

The company now expects 2026 free cash flow of $16 billion to $17 billion after a $5.4 billion third-quarter cash surplus and a $20 billion buyback authorization.

GE Vernova Inc. (GEV) raised its 2026 free cash flow outlook to $16 billion to $17 billion from $11.5 billion to $12.5 billion, and lifted revenue and adjusted EBITDA margin guidance after a quarter in which organic orders nearly doubled and the remaining performance obligation reached $197 billion.

The energy-transition equipment maker reported third-quarter revenue of $12.6 billion, up 27% from a year earlier and 18% organically, versus $11.1 billion in the second quarter. Net income was $1.3 billion, or $4.81 a share, and the net income margin was 10.2%. Adjusted EBITDA was $1.9 billion, with a 15.4% margin that rose 690 basis points organically.

Orders of $29.3 billion increased 96% organically, led by equipment at Power and continued services strength. Backlog grew $20 billion sequentially from equipment and services. Chief Executive Scott Strazik said the company now expects backlog to exceed $200 billion in the fourth quarter and to exit 2026 with at least 130 gigawatts of gas equipment under contract. Gas Power equipment backlog and slot reservation agreements grew from 116 GW to 122 GW.

Power was the quarter’s defining thread. Segment orders of $21.8 billion increased 178% organically, versus $16.7 billion in the second quarter. Revenue was $6.1 billion, up 25% on a GAAP and organic basis. Segment EBITDA margin was 21.4%, up 800 basis points, or 830 basis points organically, which the company attributed primarily to favorable price and higher volume at Gas Power, partially offset by inflation. The segment signed 11 GW of new gas equipment contracts, including 8 GW of slot reservation agreements and 3 GW of orders, converted 13 GW of existing slot reservations to orders, and shipped 5 GW. Gas equipment backlog rose from 53 GW to 64 GW; slot reservations fell from 63 GW to 58 GW.

Electrification revenue was $3.9 billion, up 51% on a GAAP basis inclusive of Prolec GE and 16% organically. Segment EBITDA margin was 19.1%, up 400 basis points, or 470 basis points organically. Orders of $5.4 billion decreased 9% organically, which the company said reflected large synchronous condenser orders in the third quarter of last year; the book-to-bill ratio was about 1.4. Equipment backlog increased to $42.2 billion, including $5 billion from Prolec GE. In October the company announced an agreement to acquire Trench Group, a high-voltage grid equipment supplier, for $9.0 billion in U.S. dollar equivalent, with close expected in late 2027.

Wind reversed a second-quarter organic decline. Orders of $2.1 billion increased 16% organically, driven by Onshore Wind equipment and services, especially repowering in North America. Revenue was $2.7 billion, up 4% on a GAAP basis and 3% organically. Segment EBITDA was $72 million, a 2.6% margin, versus a loss in the prior quarter. The company said the improvement came primarily from lower project costs at Offshore Wind, tariff recoveries, and higher Onshore Wind services, partially offset by lower Onshore Wind equipment. It also resolved all outstanding Vineyard Wind litigation.

Free cash flow was $5.4 billion, up $4.7 billion from a year earlier. Cash from operating activities was $6.1 billion. The cash balance was $16.8 billion, up $4 billion sequentially. In the first nine months of 2026 the company returned $5.7 billion of capital. In October the board increased the share repurchase authorization to $20 billion from $10 billion, with $10.1 billion remaining; the company repurchased about 1.7 million shares for $1.6 billion in the quarter. Fitch upgraded the credit rating to A- from BBB+ in August.

For the full year, GE Vernova now expects revenue of $46.5 billion to $47.5 billion, up from $45.5 billion to $46.5 billion, and adjusted EBITDA margin of 13.5% to 14.5%, up from 12% to 14%. Power guidance is 19% to 21% organic revenue growth and a 19% to 21% segment EBITDA margin. Electrification revenue guidance of $14.5 billion to $15.0 billion, including about $3.1 billion from Prolec GE, is now trending toward the higher end of an 18% to 20% margin range. Wind organic revenue is expected to decline mid-single digits, with $400 million to $500 million of segment EBITDA losses.