Waste Connections Lifts 2026 Outlook for a Second Time

The Tip Desk · October 27, 2026 · 3 min read

Third-quarter revenue reached $2.638 billion and adjusted EBITDA $895.8 million, or 34.0% of sales, as the company raised full-year revenue to about $10.09 billion.

Waste Connections, Inc. (WCN) raised its 2026 outlook for a second time after third-quarter results that the company said were driven by operational execution, improving landfill volumes and commodity-related revenue.

The integrated solid waste services company reported revenue of $2.638 billion, up from $2.458 billion a year earlier. Adjusted EBITDA was $895.8 million, or 34.0% of revenue, compared with $830.3 million a year earlier. Net income was $359.2 million, or $1.43 a share, versus $286.3 million, or $1.11 a share, a year earlier. Adjusted net income was $398.9 million, or $1.58 a share.

President and Chief Executive Officer Ronald J. Mittelstaedt said the company overcame a late-quarter surge in diesel pricing to deliver a 34% adjusted EBITDA margin on 50 basis points of underlying margin expansion. He said solid waste unit volumes improved 70 basis points sequentially, led by an uptick in landfill volumes, and that results continued to reflect elevated employee retention and record safety performance.

The second-quarter adjusted EBITDA margin had been 32.8%. The first-quarter margin was 32.5%.

Operating income was $541.7 million, including $3.0 million of transaction-related expenses and $1.9 million of impairments and other operating items, partially offset by $0.6 million associated with fair value changes to equity awards. A year earlier, operating income of $439.6 million included $63.5 million primarily from the write-down of contracts and a non-operating E&P waste facility permit, an environmental liability at an operating facility and transaction-related expenses.

Solid waste internal growth for the three months ended September 30, 2026, was 4.5%, with yield of 4.3%, surcharges of 1.3%, unit volume of minus 1.2%, recycling of 0.3% and a minus 0.2% foreign-exchange impact. Core price was 5.5%.

Reported revenue by line in the third quarter included solid waste collection of $1.820 billion, or 69.0% of reported revenue, versus $1.725 billion, or 70.1%, a year earlier. Solid waste disposal and transfer was $492.2 million, or 18.7%. E&P waste treatment, recovery and disposal rose to $212.9 million, or 8.1% of reported revenue, from $179.1 million, or 7.3%. Recycling was $64.7 million, or 2.4%. Intermodal and other was $48.4 million, or 1.8%.

Acquisitions closed year to date contributed about $130 million in annualized revenues. Contribution from acquisitions, net of divestitures, was $53.4 million in the third quarter, versus $76.6 million a year earlier.

The company updated its 2026 outlook, which assumes no change in the current economic environment and excludes additional acquisitions that may close during the year. Revenue is estimated at approximately $10.09 billion. Net income is estimated at approximately $1.18 billion, and adjusted EBITDA at approximately $3.345 billion. Capital expenditures are estimated at approximately $1.25 billion. Net cash provided by operating activities is estimated between $2.64 billion and $2.69 billion, and adjusted free cash flow between $1.40 billion and $1.45 billion. In July, the company had raised the outlook to revenue of $10.02 billion to $10.05 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $3.33 billion to $3.34 billion.

Mittelstaedt said the company remains positioned to deliver double-digit growth in adjusted free cash flow of at least $1.4 billion, and that additional acquisitions later in the year, and further improvement in E&P waste activity or other commodity-driven revenues, would provide incremental benefit.

The regular quarterly dividend was increased 10% to $0.350 a share from $0.315 a share, the sixteenth consecutive annual increase. Year-to-date share repurchases exceeded $1 billion, or 2.5% of outstanding shares, after $614.5 million, or about 1.5%, in the first half.

Adjusted free cash flow was $386.9 million, or 14.7% of revenue, in the third quarter, versus $384.6 million, or 15.6%, a year earlier.