The Tip Desk

Earnings

Upstart Turns Secured Contribution Margin Positive

Contribution Profit hit a record $218 million as the company cut its 2026 Adjusted EBITDA outlook to about $260 million.

Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST), the artificial intelligence lending marketplace, reported Contribution Profit of $218 million for the quarter ended September 30, 2026, an all-time high that rose 48% from a year earlier. Contribution Margin was 60%.

The company said its secured auto and home products reached a positive combined Contribution Margin of 17%, up 52 percentage points from negative 35% in the second quarter and one quarter ahead of target. That swing was the quarter’s defining operating turn.

Originations were $4.1 billion, up 44% year-over-year, after $4.2 billion, up 50%, in the second quarter. A record 574,089 loans were originated, up 34% year-over-year. Total revenue was $371 million, up 34%. Revenue from fees was a record $364 million, up 41%.

Income from operations was $36.0 million, compared with $14.6 million in the second quarter. Net income was $36.6 million, up 15% from $31.8 million a year earlier. Diluted net income was $0.33 a share, versus $0.23 a year earlier. Adjusted EBITDA was $89.3 million, up 26% from $71.2 million a year earlier. Adjusted EBITDA Margin was 24%.

Unsecured lending remained the core of the platform. Unsecured revenue from fees was $330 million, up 30% year-over-year. Unsecured Contribution Profit was $212 million, up 35%. Unsecured Contribution Margin was 64%, up 2 percentage points from 62% in both the year-ago quarter and the second quarter of 2026. Unsecured originations were $3.53 billion. Other originations, covering auto and home, were $586 million, versus $200 million a year earlier. Other segments posted Contribution Profit of $5.8 million after a $9.6 million loss a year earlier.

Operating Margin was 10%. Conversion Rate was 18.6% for the three months ended September 30, 2026, versus 19.4% a year earlier. The company said it intends to discontinue reporting that metric beginning in the first quarter of 2027.

Co-founder and CEO Paul Gu said technology and marketing advances helped drive the record Contribution Profit and that the company supported platform growth with proportionately less equity capital. He said macro conditions are putting pressure on the near-term outlook.

For full-year 2026, Upstart now expects revenue from fees of approximately $1.32 billion, total revenue of approximately $1.35 billion, and Adjusted EBITDA of approximately $260 million, or 19% of total revenue. Fee revenue guidance rose from about $1.3 billion after the second quarter, while total revenue guidance fell from about $1.4 billion and Adjusted EBITDA guidance fell from about $294 million, or 21% of total revenue.

Cash and cash equivalents were $461 million at September 30, 2026, with restricted cash of $667 million. Borrowings were $2.03 billion. Stockholders’ equity was $887 million.

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