Novavax Lifts 2026 Adjusted Revenue Outlook After Sanofi Milestone

The Tip Desk · November 6, 2026 · 4 min read

The vaccine maker now expects $400 million at the midpoint of full-year 2026 Non-GAAP Adjusted Total Revenue after a $125 million Sanofi payment.

Novavax, Inc. (NVAX) raised its full-year 2026 Non-GAAP Adjusted Total Revenue outlook by $145 million at the midpoint, to $400 million, after Sanofi launched a Phase 3 influenza-COVID-19 combination vaccine trial in Europe in October, triggering a $125 million milestone.

The vaccine company also improved GAAP Combined R&D and SG&A expense guidance by $5 million at the midpoint, to a range of $375 million to $395 million, from $370 million to $410 million as of August 6. Non-GAAP Combined R&D and SG&A expense guidance was maintained.

Total revenue for the third quarter ended September 30, 2026 was $68 million, down 3% from $70 million a year earlier. Product sales were $26 million, 91% higher than $13 million in the year-ago quarter, consisting of Nuvaxovid supply sales to Sanofi and Matrix-M to license partners. Licensing, royalties and other revenue was $43 million, 25% lower than $57 million a year earlier, driven primarily by a $42 million year-over-year reduction in R&D reimbursement revenue as Novavax nears completion of Sanofi Nuvaxovid clinical support. The quarter included $11 million in non-cash deferred royalty recognition related to prior Nuvaxovid sales by SK bioscience to the South Korean government.

Sanofi revenue recognized under the license agreement was $19 million in the third quarter, compared with $48 million in the same period of 2025. Takeda revenue was $7 million and Serum $5 million. Cost of sales was $23 million.

Research and development expenses were $52 million, compared with $98 million in the year-ago quarter. GAAP and Non-GAAP R&D expenses decreased 47% and 7%, respectively. R&D expenses reimbursed by partners were $4 million. The company said the lower R&D expenses were driven by near completion of Sanofi clinical support for Nuvaxovid, decreased seasonal strain change support and an ongoing cost-reduction program. Selling, general and administrative expenses were $24 million, a 25% decrease from $32 million a year earlier, primarily due to the transition of lead commercial activities to Sanofi and elimination of commercial infrastructure.

Net loss narrowed to $31 million, or $0.19 a share, from a net loss of $202 million, or $1.25 a share, in the third quarter of 2025. Cash, cash equivalents, marketable securities and restricted cash were $627 million as of September 30, 2026, compared with $751 million as of December 31, 2025.

Sanofi confirmed to Novavax its intent to initiate a U.S. Phase 3 combination trial in 2027 to support U.S. approval. Novavax is eligible for an additional $225 million milestone upon a U.S. commercial launch of a CIC vaccine and royalties in the high single digits to sub-teens as a percentage of Sanofi’s global net sales on a CIC product. Manufacturing technology transfer to Sanofi for Nuvaxovid is expected to be completed in mid-2027, which would trigger a $75 million milestone.

In August 2026, commercial partners received approvals for the XFG-adapted Nuvaxovid formulation in major markets, including the U.S., the EU and Japan. Sanofi and Takeda initiated commercial activities for the 2026–2027 COVID-19 vaccination season. Novavax is eligible for royalties in the high teens to low twenties as a percentage of Sanofi’s global net sales for Nuvaxovid.

The company’s differentiated C. difficile vaccine program is anticipated to advance into the clinic as early as 2027. Novavax presented preclinical data showing robust immune responses and protection in lethal challenge models at the 9th International C. Difficile Symposium in September 2026. Multiple experiments with Matrix-M are underway in infectious disease targets and oncology models.

For full-year 2026, the company now expects Nuvaxovid product sales of $40 million to $50 million, adjusted supply sales of $50 million to $60 million, the $125 million Sanofi CIC milestone, and adjusted licensing, royalties and other revenue of $170 million to $180 million. Adjusted Total Revenue is a Non-GAAP measure that excludes Sanofi Supply Sales, Sanofi Royalties and future Sanofi Milestones, which the company said it is reliant on partner sales forecasts for and therefore does not include in the framework.