Freight and Logistics Cycle: Firmer Rates, Uneven Demand
Companies described tighter capacity and higher freight rates alongside persistent demand weakness and trade-related risks.
Transportation provider Forward Air Corp (FWRD) moved from describing general freight-cycle risks in May to reporting in August that tightening capacity and “relatively stabilized demand” had increased truckload spot rates starting in late 2025 and continuing into 2026. The company also said higher fuel costs increased both fuel-surcharge revenue and purchased transportation costs.
Freight forwarding and brokerage provider Radiant Logistics, Inc. (RLGT) identified specific reasons for capacity leaving North American truckload and intermodal markets: carrier attrition, tightening driver availability, and normalization of fleets expanded in prior years. In September, the company said spot rates and tender rejections had moved higher through the spring and into its fourth quarter. Both Radiant and Forward Air explicitly connected firmer market conditions with tightening capacity.
Freight brokerage and forwarding provider C. H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc. (CHRW) had already described “tighter carrier capacity” and a “significant increase in truckload spot market costs” in April. The company reported a flat North American Surface Transportation adjusted gross profit margin year over year, attributing that result to pricing and procurement discipline, advances in dynamic pricing and costing, and a widening cost-of-hire advantage. In July, it reported that the business's volume performance had outpaced market indices for the 13th consecutive quarter, extending the sequence described in April.
C. H. Robinson also attributed higher air freight rates to “supply-side constraints and global disruptions” in July. Its global forwarding business reported that air adjusted gross profit per metric ton increased 33.5% year over year and air tonnage declined 7.5%. Those disclosures placed supply constraints alongside lower shipment tonnage in the same business.
Logistics provider Universal Logistics Holdings, Inc. (ULH) repeated its demand assessment across the window. In May and August, the company said freight demand “remains uneven” across industrial, automotive, and consumer-related markets. It reported that automotive and heavy industrial production and shipping volumes remained below historical levels, negatively affecting demand for portions of its contract logistics business.
Goods transporter FedEx Corp (FDX) maintained an explicit trade-policy warning in May: changes in U.S. or international trade policy could further weaken transportation-industry business conditions, and additional retaliatory measures remain possible during the remainder of 2026. Radiant's September risk language also identified tariff uncertainty and geopolitical tensions as sources of volatility in volumes, pricing, and margins. The company said elevated fuel prices, airspace restrictions, and conflict-related rerouting had added costs across air and ocean freight markets.
Wabash National Corp (WNC), which reported sales and an order backlog, gave the equipment side of the cycle a more concrete recovery marker. In May, the company described cautious customers, uneven orders, and inconsistent asset utilization, alongside early stabilization and improving visibility. By September, it reported that its backlog had expanded for a second consecutive quarter to $956 million at the end of the second quarter. Second-quarter sales reached $417 million, with the company reporting approximately 38% sequential growth.
Radiant placed a timing qualification on the improving domestic indicators: the company said those trends were “not fully reflected” in its June-quarter results. It described the developments as constructive for domestic operations, particularly U.S. brokerage, leaving their fuller effect on reported results as a supported development to watch.