Vail Resorts Lifts Fiscal 2027 Ebitda Outlook After Record-Low Snow
The ski operator guided Resort Reported EBITDA to $805 million–$865 million for the year ending July 31, 2027, after fiscal 2026 net income of $147.5 million.
Vail Resorts, Inc. (MTN) reported net income attributable to the company of $147.5 million for the fiscal year ended July 31, 2026, compared with $280.0 million a year earlier, as Chief Executive Officer Rob Katz described the winter as among the most challenging in history for western U.S. skiing, with Rockies snowfall at or near historic lows.
Resort Reported EBITDA for the year was $745.7 million, including $11 million of one-time costs tied to the resource efficiency transformation plan. Resort net revenue fell $131.9 million, or 4.5%, to $2.83 billion, which the company attributed to weather that cut visitation and revenue for local and destination guests, particularly at the Rockies and Tahoe resorts. Total lift revenue declined 3.5% even as skier visits dropped 13.4%, a gap filled by a 3.9% increase in pass revenue. Mountain net revenue was $2.50 billion and Mountain Reported EBITDA was $729.4 million. Lodging net revenue was $240.3 million and Lodging Reported EBITDA was $16.3 million.
The full-year EBITDA decline of $98.5 million, or 11.7%, was driven primarily by weather headwinds and was partially offset by disciplined cost management, $45 million of resource efficiency savings, $16.7 million of unearned performance-based incentive expense, and $6.2 million of favorable foreign-exchange effects. Those benefits were partly offset by an incremental $20 million of marketing spend to support pass sales, lift-ticket initiatives and branding.
The third quarter, ended April 30, had been the deepest weather hit of the year: resort net revenue fell 7.0% and Resort Reported EBITDA fell 9.5%. The fourth quarter, ended July 31, marked a turn. Resort net revenue rose $0.9 million, or 0.3%, on strong Grand Teton Lodge Company performance that more than offset Australia, where cumulative snowfall in the quarter was about 57% below the 10-year average. Resort Reported EBITDA increased $1.2 million, or 1.0%, helped by $8.1 million of CEO transition costs in the year-ago quarter, disciplined cost management and $4 million lower one-time transformation costs, including $1 million of a timing shift into next year. North American summer demand was in line with expectations.
Pass selling for the upcoming 2026/2027 North American season has not recovered. Through September 18, 2026, pass product unit sales were down about 12% from the year-ago period through September 19, 2025, days sold were down about 10%, and sales dollars, inclusive of sales and admissions taxes, were down about 6%. Those declines were wider than the roughly 10% unit drop reported through May 26, 2026. Results through the Labor Day deadline were generally consistent with the spring selling period, excluding auto-renew, as industry demand remained affected by last season’s conditions. After the May spring deadline, Colorado and Utah local markets showed modest improvement, while weakness remained concentrated among destination frequency products, especially lower-frequency passes. Third-party data continued to show Vail Resorts outperforming the broader industry, especially on comparable unlimited products, with new product and pricing initiatives producing relative strength in unlimited passes and improved mix and pricing. Unit declines among destination frequency passes may reflect delayed purchase behavior rather than fully lost demand.
For the year ending July 31, 2027, Vail Resorts expects net income attributable to the company of $158 million to $233 million and Resort Reported EBITDA of $805 million to $865 million, including about $14 million of one-time costs. At the midpoint, that implies a Resort EBITDA margin of about 26.9%, or about 27.3% excluding one-time costs. The outlook reflects a meaningful recovery from the weather-impacted fiscal 2026 season, supported by increased lift-ticket visitation, pricing growth, higher guest spending in ancillary businesses and about $25 million of incremental efficiencies from the transformation plan, partly offset by lower pass demand, expense normalization, inflation, additional strategic investments and the one-time costs. Relative to original fiscal 2026 expectations issued in September 2025, fiscal 2027 guidance assumes visitation modestly lower, overall lift revenue flat from pricing and product optimization, and increased marketing to drive visitation. Ancillary growth and transformation savings are not expected to fully offset inflation, resulting in a lower Resort EBITDA margin than originally expected for fiscal 2026.
The transformation plan remains on track, with about $25 million of incremental efficiencies in fiscal 2027 excluding one-time costs and about $110 million of annualized efficiencies by the end of that year. Vail Resorts expects $5 million of next-phase savings to arrive a year earlier than previously planned, with an additional $25 million of savings in fiscal 2028. Liquidity was about $0.8 billion as of July 31, 2026, and net debt was 3.9 times trailing-twelve-months Total Reported EBITDA. The board declared a quarterly cash dividend of $2.22 a share, payable October 27, 2026. Vail Resorts reaffirmed a calendar 2026 core capital plan of about $215 million to $220 million, with total calendar 2026 investment of about $229 million to $234 million including growth capital. Calendar 2027 plans include three Park City Mountain lift upgrades; Vail Resorts will provide the full calendar 2027 capital plan in December 2026.