Treasury Yield Spread Narrows to 0.43 Percentage Points
New yield data arrives alongside a mix of cooling inflation and steady employment figures.
**Coverage:** Fresh at 2026-08-04: 10-Year Treasury Minus 2-Year Treasury Yield Spread. Latest available but older: Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, Real GDP, % Change from Preceding Period, Average Hourly Earnings, Total Private (SA), CPI-U, All Items (NSA), CPI-U, All Items (SA), CPI-U, All Items Less Food & Energy — Core CPI (SA), JOLTS Job Openings, Total Nonfarm (SA), PPI Final Demand (SA), Total Nonfarm Payroll Employment (SA), Unemployment Rate (SA), Advance Monthly Retail Sales, Total (ex. auto/gas categories vary), New Residential Construction, Housing Starts (Total), 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate, 2-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate, Effective Federal Funds Rate, ICE BofA US High Yield Index Option-Adjusted Spread.
The 10-Year Treasury Minus 2-Year Treasury Yield Spread fell to 0.43 percentage points on 2026-08-04. This represents a 0.02 percentage point decline from the previous day and a 0.10 percentage point drop from 2025-08-04.
Labor market data from the BLS indicates a steady but cooling environment. Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 57,000 persons in June to reach 158,984,000, while the unemployment rate dipped 0.10 percentage points to 4.20%. However, JOLTS job openings fell by 178,000 in June. Average hourly earnings rose 0.3% to $37.64 per hour.
Inflationary pressures showed signs of easing across multiple indices. The seasonally adjusted CPI-U for all items fell 0.4% in June, and the Core CPI remained flat. The Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index decreased 0.1% monthly, while the BLS PPI Final Demand dropped 1.4%.
Growth and consumption remained positive. Real GDP grew by 1.50% as of 2026-04-01, though this was 0.60 percentage points lower than the preceding period. Retail sales rose by $1,677 million in June, and housing starts jumped 19.0% to 1,427,000 units.