Louisiana-Pacific Slashes Full-Year Outlook as OSB Losses Deepen
Louisiana-Pacific cut its full-year 2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance to $255-270 million, less than two-thirds of the $430 million it forecast in February.
Louisiana-Pacific (LPX) cut its full-year 2026 profit outlook for the third time this year, as a collapse in oriented strand board pricing overwhelmed steadier results in its core siding business. The wood-products maker reported second-quarter consolidated Adjusted EBITDA of $79 million, down from $142 million a year earlier and little changed from $82 million in the first quarter.
The quarter capped a string of downward revisions that began with an original full-year 2026 Adjusted EBITDA guide of $430 million issued in February. By May, that figure had been cut to $345-370 million, and the company now guides to $255-270 million. Capital expenditure guidance has followed the same path, falling from roughly $400 million in February to $390 million in May to about $320 million now.
Net income fell to $26 million, or $0.38 a diluted share, from $54 million a year earlier, though it was roughly flat against the first quarter's $27 million, or $0.39 a share. The stabilization follows a sharp swing in the company's fortunes: Louisiana-Pacific posted a $(8) million net loss in the fourth quarter of 2025 after full-year 2025 profit fell $275 million from the prior year, before returning to positive quarterly earnings in the first half of 2026.
OSB drove the deterioration. Segment net sales fell 27% year over year to $182 million, and Adjusted EBITDA swung to a $(21) million loss from a $19 million profit a year earlier, a $40 million decline tied to weaker prices and volumes. Within the segment, commodity OSB pricing fell 20% year over year with volumes roughly flat, while Structural Solutions pricing fell a smaller 10% but volumes dropped 24%, showing the damage split unevenly between price and volume across the two product lines. Full-year OSB guidance now stands at a $(120) million loss, down from a projected $(40) million loss in May and from a breakeven forecast in February. The company's smaller "Other" segment, which includes South American operations, added to the pressure, with Adjusted EBITDA falling $12 million year over year to $(13) million on lower South American OSB prices and higher costs.
Siding held up in comparison. Net sales declined 4% year over year to $441 million, a smaller drop than the first quarter's 10% decline, even as it marked a reversal from growth of 5% and 6% in the third and fourth quarters of 2025, respectively. Volumes fell 11% year over year while prices rose 7%, an improvement from the first quarter's 18% volume decline against 9% price growth. Segment Adjusted EBITDA margin narrowed to about 25.6% from 27.2% a year earlier as raw material, freight and labor costs added $10 million to the cost base during the quarter.
Louisiana-Pacific reaffirmed its full-year Siding guidance of $1.65-1.67 billion in net sales and $410-425 million in Adjusted EBITDA, unchanged from the ranges given alongside first-quarter results. For the third quarter, the company guided to Siding net sales of $460-470 million, roughly 5% growth year over year, which would mark a return to growth after two straight quarters of declines.
Operating efficiency improved in both segments even as profitability diverged: overall equipment effectiveness rose to 85% from 83% in Siding and to 80% from 79% in OSB. Cash from operations rebounded to $140 million in the second quarter from a $38 million use of cash in the first quarter, though it remained below the $162 million generated a year earlier. Total liquidity stood at about $1 billion, up from roughly $900 million at the end of the first quarter.