Earnings

Oshkosh Cuts Profit Outlook as Fire Truck Snags Persist

The Tip Desk · July 29, 2026 · 3 min read

Oshkosh trimmed its 2026 adjusted profit forecast to roughly $11.00 a share after fire truck manufacturing throughput improved more slowly than expected, even as quarterly sales climbed 6.7%.

Oshkosh (OSK), the maker of specialty trucks and access equipment, cut its full-year adjusted earnings outlook to approximately $11.00 a share from the $11.50 guidance it had reiterated in May, citing slower-than-expected progress in fire truck manufacturing throughput as the company implements new material flow processes. It was the first cut to that guidance figure since the company set it at $11.50 in late January. Oshkosh also disclosed a GAAP earnings guidance figure of approximately $10.50 a share for 2026, a metric it had not included in its prior-quarter outlook.

The cut arrived alongside a quarter of accelerating top-line growth. Consolidated sales rose 6.7% to $2.92 billion, up from just 0.2% growth in the first quarter, as higher volume and improved pricing offset the margin pressures weighing on the bottom line. Adjusted earnings per share fell 15.8% to $2.87 from $3.41 a year earlier, reversing the modest growth Oshkosh posted in the same quarter last year. GAAP operating margin fell to 8.3% of sales from 10.7%, part of a compression trend that has run through five straight quarters, including a low of 3.5% in the first quarter of 2026.

The Access segment supplied the quarter's growth engine. Sales climbed 9.4% to $1.37 billion, reversing declines in each of the two prior quarters, and the order backlog swelled to $1.958 billion from $1.189 billion a year earlier on the back of $1.5 billion in new orders during the quarter, the strongest order commentary Oshkosh has issued across the five quarters reviewed. That growth came at a cost to profitability: Access segment operating margin fell to 11.0% from 14.5%, continuing a compression pattern that had earlier taken the segment's margin as low as 3.7% in the first quarter.

The Vocational segment, which includes refuse and recycling trucks, told a different story. Sales were essentially flat at $966.8 million versus $969.7 million a year earlier, a sharp deceleration from the roughly 19% growth posted in the third quarter of 2025, with refuse and recycling vehicle shipments cited as the specific drag. Segment operating margin slid to 12.5% from 15.2%, reversing the expansion Oshkosh had reported as recently as the fourth quarter of 2025.

Transport segment sales rose 11.9% to $536.1 million, powered by the ramp-up of the U.S. Postal Service's Next Generation Delivery Vehicle program, which offset a decline in defense sales; delivery vehicle sales for the first half of the year roughly doubled to $478.2 million from $157.4 million. Even with a one-time $16.6 million NGDV performance-obligation benefit recognized in the quarter, Transport operating margin still fell to 2.9% from 3.7%, underscoring how thin margins remain on that program even as volumes build.

A lower effective tax rate provided some offset to the operating pressures. The rate dropped to 16.9% from 24.1%, aided by a $16.7 million discrete tax benefit tied to the expiration of the statute of limitations on a foreign anti-hybrid tax matter. Corporate and other net operating costs also declined $9.7 million to $45.3 million, largely because the quarter did not repeat an intangible asset impairment that had weighed on results a year earlier.

Oshkosh raised its quarterly dividend to $0.57 a share from $0.51 and stepped up share repurchases, buying back $91.6 million of stock in the quarter, a pace that lifted six-month repurchases to $138.9 million and added $0.09 to per-share earnings versus the prior year. Those capital-return moves came even as the guidance cut signaled that the fire truck production issues flagged in the release will weigh on results through the remainder of the year.

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